Climate Disaster in the Making

By Dinesh C Sharma, April 2, 2014, Daily Mail

The latest report from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has once again brought forth the reality about climate change. Compared to earlier reports, the evidence presented is robust since it is based on a larger body of scientific, technical and socioeconomic evidence of climate change. The evidence of climate change impacts is “strongest and most comprehensive” for natural systems such as glaciers and oceans. 

The impact of climate change is already visible on agricultural crops. Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, the panel has concluded that negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common. Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize yields for many regions, while rice yields have been affected to lesser extent. Human health too is getting impacted. Local changes in temperature and rainfall have altered distribution of some water-borne illnesses and disease vectors such as mosquitoes.

It is difficult for global reports such as those prepared by IPCC to assess or predict impacts of climate change at a country level, as these reports largely rely on work done in several countries and regions. Nevertheless, they serve as important indicators of changing climate and its impact on our lives. 

The unseasonal rains and freak hailstorms that lashed many parts of the country this past month have left a trail of destruction and loss of human lives. Sudden loss of standing crops has led many farmers to end their lives in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. While it may take some time for scientists to analyse these events and tell us if they are part of a pattern of freak incidents, such incidents definitely fall in the category of “extreme weather events” whose frequency was predicted to go up due to climate change.

The objective of IPCC reports is to alert policy makers and politicians and prod them into action. Unfortunately, politicians are not paying any heed to warnings coming from scientists. India had prepared a National Climate Change Action Plan five years ago but there has been little on the ground. 

Several missions were planned under this action plan, but work is just beginning on some of them. For instance, the mission on sustainable Himalayan ecology was sanctioned just couple of months ago. This mission is very critical as nearly one dozen Indian states fall in the Himalayan region, a large number of people live in this region and a bulk of Indian landmass is fed by Himalayan rivers. Besides the national action plan, every state is supposed to initiate its own climate change plan. If we are unable to take any steps to prevent climate change – such as reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases - we can at least prepare ourselves to mitigate and adapt to impacts of climate change. Let’s not wait till catastrophic impacts start unfolding. Climate skeptics - funded by fossil fuel lobbies - will continue to deny or seek to dilute impacts of climate change, but this is not going to change the situation on the ground.

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