El Nino Shadow Over Indian Monsoon

By Dinesh C Sharma, Mail Today, April 20, 2014

It is often said that our planet’s weather is one large system interconnected to such an extent that if a butterfly flaps its wings in Amazon forests it can affect the weather from India to Indonesia. No other weather phenomenon signifies this better than the Indian southwest monsoon.  And it is precisely for this reason that all eyes are currently riveted to data trickling from a network of buoys moored in equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea temperature data from these buoys will tell us whether 2014 will indeed be an El Nino year and what will be the intensity of this weather system which has direct bearing on the Indian monsoon.

As of now, sub-surface water temperatures in the tropical Pacific have risen to levels similar to the onset of an El Nino event, and further warming is predicted in comings months. The occurrence of El Nino does not augur well for the monsoon since El Nino is one of the key global weather factors that decide its fate. “Model forecasts indicate a fairly large potential for an El Nino, most likely by the end of the second quarter of 2014,” the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned in its update issued on April 15. Two-thirds of weather models surveyed by WMO predict that El Nino thresholds will be reached in June to August period.  However, it is still early to reliably estimate the strength of possible El Nino.

“By all indications, El Nino conditions are developing but its impact will be felt only in the second half of the June-to-September monsoon period. It appears it will not be a full-blown El Nino, so the chances of drought-like situation developing are low”, felt Dr Ajit Tyagi, former director general of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The department has not yet announced the seasonal long-term forecast, though private companies like Skymet have predicted “below normal” monsoon based on analysis of available data.

The biggest fear of an El Nino resulting in a below-average monsoon is its likely impact on agriculture and its cascading effect on the Indian economy. Nearly 60 percent of the net sown area in the country depends on rains. Nearly half of cereals and 80 percent on pulses and minor millets are grown in areas which are not irrigated. “The success of kharif crops is largely dependent on performance of the monsoon. The yields of rabi crops, though largely irrigated, too take advantage of left-over moisture in the soil in post-monsoon months”, explained Dr M Maheswari, director of Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad.

In addition to directly affecting the farm sector, bad monsoon hits hard companies in related businesses such as fertilizer and tractor manufacturing.  Below-average monsoon or drought conditions also mean lower disposal income in the hands of farmers, which in turn, slows down white goods sector. Commodities markets are also sensitive to El Nino. Overall impact of all this could be higher Consumer Price Index (CPI), food inflation and lower GDP growth rate.

However, experts are cautious about impact of El Nino this year. “Even in a situation when the overall rainfall is on lower side of the average, its impact on agriculture economy would depend on distribution and timing of rainfall”, pointed out Dr Tyagi. “While El Nino is developing, other factors that impact Indian monsoon are as yet neutral or not unfavourable. In the event of below-average rainfall too, the impact on agriculture economy can be minimised by taking pro-active measures”.

“In addition to the monsoon, we are seeing that extreme weather events are on the rise and are adversely affecting farming operations”, added Dr Maheswari. For instance, she said, delayed onset of monsoon and cyclonic weather towards at the end of the season are affecting farmers. In the past few weeks, several states have experienced hailstorms and high rainfall which have hit both annual and perennial crops.

Monsoon-proofing Indian agriculture is a long-term option which has also become imperative in light of climate change concerns. Tailor-made “contingency crop plans” have been prepared for 500 districts across the country and 100 most vulnerable districts have been identified for technology demonstration. “These are detailed operational plans prepared for each district, laying down what needs to be done under different scenarios such as delayed onset of monsoon, long dry spells, mid-season drought and early withdrawal of the monsoon”, Dr Maheswari elaborated. The ball is now in the court of state governments which are required to implement these plans. Till this happens, El Nino will continue to be the chief dramatis persona in the annual monsoon theatre.